The news seemed positive: The number of new coronaviruses reported in China last week suggested that the outbreak was slowing down – which is trying to control.
However, on Thursday, officials added more than 14,840 new cases to the number of victims in Hubei Province, reaching 48,206, the largest single day ever recorded. The death toll in the province has risen to 1,310, with 242 new deaths.
The sharp increase in reported cases illustrates how difficult it is for scientists to realize the magnitude and severity of coronavirus outbreaks in China, especially within the earthquake, where thousands of ill people are left unaware of the illness.
With so many people confronted with symptoms and not an easy way to examine them, authorities seem to have changed the way they diagnose illness.
Hubei’s largest city and epidemic epidemic – hospitals in China Wuhan fight to detect infections through rare and complex tests that directly detect the virus’s genetic signature. Other countries have this problem.
Instead, officials in Hubei now appear to include symptomatic patients with infections diagnosed using a lung scan. The shortcut will help more patients receive needed care, provincial officials said. It can be easy for the authorities involved in these calculations to decide how to allocate resources and determine treatment options.
However, the change also shows a large number of people in Hubei who are not considered to be on the official list of sick and outbreaks. It also raises the question whether the already struggling province is well equipped to deal with new patients?
On Wednesday night, few experts were surprised to learn the new number. Lung scans are an incomplete way of identifying patients, meaning patients with common seasonal flu can also have visible pneumonia on their lung scans.
“We’re in an unknown area,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville.
Health officials in China are under exceptional pressure. Hospitals are overwhelmed, and huge new shelters are being built for warehouse patients. Treatment resources are provided less. It was never clear who was being tested.
Health workers visit homes in Ohan to check for signs. The potential for isolation may prevent some respiratory patients from attending healthcare services, some experts say, adding that the magnitude of the epidemic is even clearer.
“You have to get sick, the authorities have to find you, or you have to find them and they have to check you out,” said Dr. Arthur Reingold, an epidemiologist at the University of California, Berkeley.
The pressure to prioritize lung scans seemed to have begun via Sohail media outreach by a physician in Wuhan, who last week called on patients to use scans to facilitate screening and accelerate their hospitalization and treatment.
He said lung scans gave instant results, and Wuhan was keeping test kits low.
Even before today’s news, experts complained that the epidemiological data from China was incomplete, threatening efforts to prevent it.
The new coronavirus is highly contagious and will be difficult to squat. A single infected “super-spreader” can infect dozens of others. Outbreaks may begin again in short order as the weather or conditions change
Recent clusters of coronavirus cases show that the new coronary virus not only spreads quickly, but also in a manner that is not completely understood.
In Hong Kong, people living individually on the 10th floor were infected, and a sissile pipe was blamed. A British citizen apparently infected 10 people, including some people on a ski slit, before he even knew he was sick.
At least 32 of the 33 patients in Tianjin, China, have a connection to a large department store.
The World Health Organization Director General said on Wednesday. Tedros adhonam Gherbaeusus said “this outbreak can still go in any direction”.
A change in diagnosis can make the virus more difficult to detect, said co-director of the University of Washington Metacenter for Pandemic Preparation and Global Health Security. Peter Rabinowitz.
“If they change the whole procedure by screening and detecting, it makes it really confusing right now,” he said. It is now “a moving target” to estimate the scale of the epidemic.
It is not uncommon for scientists to modify diagnostic criteria as their understanding of the new disease changes. But when the criteria were changed, experts said that continuing to make week-by-week comparisons is not understandable.
“This sounds simple but it is important – what number are you counting?” The infectious disease expert said Dr. Schaffner.
There are other reasons why the pandemic has learned that scientists are wary of the idea.
Unlike MARS and SARS, both coronavirus-infected viruses from China appear to be highly contagious, though they are most likely fatal.
Hard-pressed scientists often identify the pandemic as a kind of iceberg for public health officials – their enclosure and true size hidden beneath the surface.
The chaos makes it more complicated to detect these levels. However, an accurate understanding of the situation in China is essential for the safety of other countries around the world, WHO’s Dr Tedros points out.
The country is so central to the global economy that it can easily create a “seed” epidemic anywhere, he said.
Dr. Tedros referred to the Democratic Republic of Congo, “Our biggest fear is that the damage this coronavirus can do to countries like the DRC still remains.”
Is a professor of epidemiology at the University of California, Davis. “Managing feedback effectively is a huge task,” said Christine Kreider Johnson. “That would be true of any country.”
“We are in the dark about knowing what to expect.”
Reporting contribution was by Vivian Wang.