Welcome to PollWatch, take a look at our weekly look Polling data And studies that will shape candidates, voters, and surveys 2020 Elections.
The 101 nominees were divided among Democratic presidential candidates, with the three nominations contested. On Saturday, 54 more will be caught in the South Carolina primaries.
However, after three days, the partners grow a lot. More than a third of the total available – more than 5,3 delegates will play Super Tuesday next week, while 5 states and territories and Democrats will vote abroad.
That’s probably the biggest reason why the results are so important in South Carolina: Whoever successes there can have a big impact on what happens three days later. If former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. wins in South Carolina, where the polls show him leading, he can continue that momentum on the day of the most representative rich vote in the calendar.
If he didn’t win South Carolina, Most Super Tuesday weaknesses in his ground management in the state and the strength of his competition will put Mr Biden at a disadvantage. Current front-runner Senator Bernie Sanders is in good standing in many states on Super Tuesday; A few determined victories in the biggest competition could further clear his nomination path. Then there is Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, who spent more than $ 5 million in advertising and will be on the ballot for the first time on Tuesday, excluding February’s four Democratic contests.
Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota also see some bright opportunities, especially in their home state, where they both vote on Tuesday. (Vermont, Mr. Sanders’ home, too)) And Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, India, may be able to make a significant number of delegates, even though no particular state seems to be an easy winner for him.
Here’s a look at what the polls are telling us about the six states with the most representatives on the map on Super Tuesday.
California: 415 Committed Representatives
Big rewards California made its initial move to Super Tuesday for 2020, and its enormous delegates made the newcomer an instant star. This is a pretty good fit for Mr. Sanders, with a relatively liberal, heavy Latino Democratic voter, and of course, after his big win in neighboring Nevada, he earned commanding leads in most California surveys – as any of his opponents needed to claim a nationwide delegation by reducing the gate by 5 percent. Is at risk (They could still win delegates to congressional districts))
In most surveys, Mrs. Warren is in the fight for second place. As long as he is hit at the door, he can choose most of the delegates to not win the state. Mr. Biden and Mr. Bloomberg are each at a great distance; A Survey of Monmouth University Last week Mr Sanders showed 24 per cent support, and Mr Biden next 17 per cent, thanks to the strong support of black voters.
Texas: 228 committed representatives
Exhibit A for why South Carolina considers elementary matters. Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders have been neck-and-neck in most of the surveys, with both candidates relying on a diverse but fragile alliance. Results from South Carolina, expected to be the first nomination contest of the year with the majority-black electorate, are likely to help tip the tide in favor of Mr. Biden.
Mr. Sanders has invested heavily in Texas, especially trying to cast votes among the state’s large Latino population, which was about a third of the Democratic primary vote in 2016. Ms Warren has a strong opponent on the left, rising in neighboring Oklahoma and falling to third. In percentage, a University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll Earlier this month. (Mr. Sanders had 24 percent of the vote and Mr. Biden had 22 percent of the population.)
Mr. Bloomberg is also an element. According to one analysis, he flooded Texas’s airflow by keeping 5 percent of all political advertising in the state By The Dallas Morning News.
North Carolina: 1 committed representative
The door next to Mr. Biden’s self-described South Carolina firewall, North Carolina, for a long time seemed like an almost equally safe state to him. But earlier this year, as Mr. Bloomberg’s campaign accelerated, Mr. Sanders consolidated his support for liberal voters (more groups here than in South Carolina), with Mr. Biden voting.
Those three candidates have a good chance on Tuesday. Recent Massachusetts University Lowell Survey Mr Sanders, led by YouGov, came forward with 23 percent support, Mr. Bloomberg 19 percent and Mr. Biden 16 percent.
Virginia: 99 committed delegates
Along with North Carolina, Virginia probably gave Mr. Bloomberg his best shot for a significant win. One Survey of Monmouth University Earlier this month, Mr. Sanders and Mr. Bloomberg tied for 22 percent, while Mr Biden had 18 percent – a technically three-way statistical tie.
In this survey, Mr Biden Krishna retained a lead over both Mr Bloomberg and Mr Sanders among the voters, but he marked both of the voters with less than $ 1,4,000 a year, a population that is important to both him and him. Mr. Sanders
Massachusetts: 91 committed delegates
In Mrs. Warren’s home state, Mr. Sanders could play spoiler. Accordingly, two liberal senators are running about the neck and neck Most of all Recent In the election – Although a The WBUR Poll Mr Sanders jumped to an eight-point lead, released Friday.
Mr. Biden is running, sustained by his leadership among the unique voters, and Mr. Buttigigo is consistently voting on the Midteans.
Mrs. Warren gained momentum From the Boston Globe On Wednesday, when the magazine backed him up and the next day a super PAC announced that it would run $ 9 million advertising on his behalf through Super Tuesday. He confirmed this week that Mr Sanders has shown a sustainable ability to raise funds if a representative lacks a majority and that he can continue during the summer. So, at a competitive conference event, he may want to present himself as a fucking choice.
By that logic, it may be important to establish Mrs. Warren’s credibility as a candidate to win at least one state on Tuesday.
Minnesota: 75 committed reps
It’s a similar story in Minnesota, where Mrs. Klubuchar was in front of her home with 20 percent of the vote. Star Tribune / MPR News Poll. However, Mr. Sanders, who enjoyed his most triumphant victory in the primary campaign of 2016 there, secured a strong second place at 20 percent.
Mrs Klobuchar could banking on a similar argument to Miss Karen, that she should attend the convention. Mr. Klobuchar’s popularity mirrors that of most middle-of-the-road Minnesota Democrats, with his moderate opponents – Mr. Bloomberg, Mr. Biden or Mr. Buttigieg – gaining more than 5 percent in the Tribune / MPR poll. Mrs. Warren came in at 11 percent.